Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.341903 0.388767 0.439645 0.498981 0.566281 0.640249 0.727721
2025-09-21 0.270419 0.331878 0.403746 0.493975 0.604251 0.734682 0.900767
2025-09-28 0.216819 0.285117 0.370520 0.485134 0.634979 0.824343 1.082097
2025-10-05 0.186145 0.260878 0.360290 0.502161 0.699523 0.964604 1.348262
2025-10-12 0.156389 0.232590 0.339967 0.502237 0.741415 1.081396 1.602380
2025-10-19 0.134536 0.211504 0.325955 0.508415 0.792253 1.217605 1.905049
2025-10-26 0.118657 0.196487 0.318191 0.522168 0.855890 1.381298 2.273759
2025-11-02 0.099498 0.173030 0.293594 0.505412 0.868810 1.468133 2.534924
2025-11-09 0.082467 0.150202 0.266342 0.479671 0.862427 1.521924 2.748786
2025-11-16 0.071041 0.135169 0.249870 0.469597 0.880848 1.619310 3.051451
2025-11-23 0.061353 0.121682 0.234004 0.457928 0.894183 1.708821 3.352296
2025-11-30 0.055962 0.115447 0.230486 0.468668 0.950671 1.884733 3.840909
2025-12-07 0.047897 0.102879 0.213440 0.451399 0.952076 1.959880 4.152880
2025-12-14 0.042132 0.094104 0.202626 0.445127 0.974935 2.081239 4.579326
2025-12-21 0.036943 0.085695 0.191280 0.435938 0.990284 2.189634 4.996467
2025-12-28 0.034335 0.082581 0.190779 0.450349 1.059309 2.422231 5.722756
2026-01-04 0.030944 0.077090 0.184144 0.449776 1.094374 2.585284 6.317490
2026-01-11 0.028335 0.073033 0.180180 0.454849 1.143495 2.787677 7.037528
2026-01-18 0.026418 0.070370 0.179119 0.466821 1.211265 3.044048 7.930275
2026-01-25 0.023264 0.063997 0.167954 0.451598 1.208554 3.128909 8.405927
2026-02-01 0.020137 0.057164 0.154563 0.428428 1.181611 3.149079 8.717352
2026-02-08 0.018035 0.052779 0.146886 0.419313 1.190682 3.263444 9.299454
2026-02-15 0.016126 0.048614 0.139157 0.408811 1.194297 3.363926 9.859984